Friday, June 18, 2010

Have You Developed a Watch List?

If you have a watch list, it may be wisest to keep it as that: a watch list to draw from if this market shows more strength. So far so good, however. Just remember the market is beholden to news and is coming off the bottom of a nasty down move. We could simply be in what turns out to be another little rally in a bigger bear market. We haven't hit bear market levels, but it isn't that far away.

As a stock trader, despite the mixed signals of this market, it is always worth taking a shot at a trade which is setting up if you think there is a chance of a rally working out.

The way to play it is to test the market with a pilot position and see how it works out. If this market rally is for real, there will be plenty of time to find solid stocks readying for a break out.

My watch list so far includes the following stocks:

AVGO - Already broke out, but within buy range
LULU - Broke out but pulled back today in heightened volume. Great story to this one.
ULTA - Broke out of odd, choppy boxy base, but I think Nicolas Darvus would like this one...
CSTR - Intruiging one, watch for rebound off 50 day moving average (only 9% ROE)
ROST - Cup with handle (lowish sales)
URBN - Cup with handle
WYNN - Cup (sales 23% most recent quarter, would like to see more)
CLR - High handle forming?
SKX - Broke out of cup, but only heightened volume - high handle forming?
LZ - Cup forming
TPX - Cup forming. One of my favorites so far despite choppy pattern.
ALTR - Cup forming
NFX - Cup forming, but prior uptrend a little soft
MFB - Cup forming, good group, could use some volume for a vote of confidence
VLTR - Cup forming, hot group
VRX - Cup forming, been a hot stock in a currently cold group

This watch list is just a starting point. I will be vetting each stock and waiting to see which ones break out on solid volume. It's possible I move in on LULU or AVGO as my pilot position. I will let the market develop some more as I dip a toe in.

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